COLLEGIUM PHARMACEUTICAL, INC (COLL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 revenue and adjusted EPS beat S&P Global consensus: Product revenues, net were $177.8M vs $173.1M estimated; adjusted EPS was $1.49 vs $1.45 estimated. Full-year 2025 guidance was reaffirmed (revenue $735–$750M; adjusted EBITDA $435–$450M; adjusted OpEx $220–$230M) . Revenue/adjusted EPS beats per S&P Global estimates; see Estimates Context section for details.*
• Growth drivers: Jornay PM net revenue reached $28.5M with prescriptions up 24% YoY; the ADHD sales force expansion (+55 reps to ~180) is fully deployed. Pain portfolio net revenue rose 3% YoY with Belbuca $51.7M (+2%), Xtampza ER $47.6M (+4%), Nucynta franchise $47.1M (+4%) .
• Profitability/cash: Adjusted EBITDA was $95.2M; $55.4M cash from operations; cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities rose to $197.8M; net leverage ~1.5x, with year-end 2025 target <1.0x reiterated .
• Capital returns: Board authorized a $25M accelerated share repurchase (ASR) and executed it on May 12; ~$65M remains under the broader program after this ASR .
• Key stock catalysts: Reaffirmed FY25 guide, visible Jornay PM momentum (scripts, prescribers, market share), near‑term OpEx investment cadence, and ongoing deleveraging/share repurchases .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • “Collegium is off to a strong start in 2025,” with 23% YoY revenue growth and progress on priorities (grow Jornay PM, maximize pain portfolio, deploy capital) .
  • Jornay PM growth inflecting: $28.5M net revenue, +24% YoY scripts, prescribers reached an all-time high; sales force expanded and fully deployed (~180 reps) to drive adoption .
  • Pain portfolio durability: Belbuca $51.7M (+2% YoY), Xtampza ER $47.6M (+4%), Nucynta franchise $47.1M (+4%) underpin cash generation; Xtampza LOE Sept 2033; Nucynta ER/IR exclusivity extended to July/Jan 2027 .

• What Went Wrong

  • GAAP profitability compressed: GAAP net income fell to $2.4M (from $27.7M YoY); GAAP diluted EPS $0.07 vs $0.71 YoY, reflecting higher OpEx (+80% YoY) tied to Jornay commercialization, integration, and transition costs .
  • Adjusted OpEx stepped up to $62.2M (+80% YoY) as the company invests in Jornay PM (sales force and marketing), pressuring near‑term margins; management guided OpEx to trend down in H2 2025 .
  • Per S&P Global, EBITDA came in below consensus despite company-reported adjusted EBITDA of $95.2M; definitional differences vs non‑GAAP “Adjusted EBITDA” contributed to the discrepancy (see Estimates Context) .*

Financial Results

• Income statement progression and consensus comparison

• Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus (beats/misses)

Notes: S&P “Primary EPS” aligns with non‑GAAP EPS in this case; company’s adjusted EBITDA was $95.2M (definition differs from S&P’s EBITDA) . Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

• Profitability ratios (calculated from reported figures)

Note: Margins are calculated from the cited revenue and adjusted EBITDA figures.

• Segment/product revenue (Q1 2025)

• Cash and leverage

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Strategic focus: “We remain committed to… drive significant growth in Jornay PM, maximize the value of our pain portfolio, and strategically deploy capital to further enhance shareholder value” (CEO) .
• On Q1 performance: “We grew revenue 23% year-over-year, made targeted investments in our lead growth driver, Jornay PM, and generated strong operating cash flows from our pain business” (CFO) .
• ADHD platform: “Jornay is the only stimulant ADHD medicine with once‑daily evening dosing… provides symptom control upon awakening… and throughout the day” (CCO) .
• Capital allocation: “Board has authorized a $25 million accelerated share repurchase… we expect to end 2025 with net leverage of less than 1x” (CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

• Seasonality and field impact: Scripts can slow into summer and re‑accelerate in back‑to‑school; expanded sales force increased reach (targets from ~17k to ~21k HCPs) and frequency; typical script acceleration ~6 months post‑deployment (impact more in Q4 and 2026) .
• ADHD market dynamics: Market growing ~5–6%; prescriber mix ~40% pediatricians, ~40% neuropsychiatry, ~20% PCP/NP/PA; share gains sourced mainly from generic immediate‑release stimulants .
• Business development capacity: Willing to lever up to ~3x for the right commercial asset; expect to end 2025 at <1x net leverage organically .
• Technology expansion: Company noted historical exploration of technology on other compounds; focus remains on executing Jornay PM growth plan currently .

Estimates Context

• Q1 beats vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $177.8M vs $173.1M; Primary EPS $1.49 vs $1.45. EBITDA per S&P was $80.9M vs $96.5M consensus, while company-reported adjusted EBITDA was $95.2M (definitions differ) . Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Estimate breadth: Q1 2025 EPS (4 estimates); revenue (5 estimates). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Revenue/adjusted EPS beat with guidance reaffirmed; near‑term OpEx heavier by design to build Jornay PM, with spend expected to moderate in H2’25—a setup for operating leverage in 2026+ .
• Jornay PM is scaling with structural advantages (evening dosing, prescriber/patient advocacy) and a larger, fully deployed field force; expect continued script and share gains, with full sales‑force impact lagging into late 2025/2026 .
• Pain portfolio continues to fund growth—broadly stable to modestly growing revenues and meaningful exclusivity runway (Xtampza 2033; Nucynta ER/IR 2027) support medium‑term cash generation .
• Balance sheet improving quickly with robust FCF; deleveraging to <1x by YE25 plus an active buyback (ASR executed) provides downside support and optionality for disciplined BD .
• Watch EBITDA definition debates: per S&P, EBITDA missed consensus; however, company’s adjusted EBITDA was robust at $95.2M. Expect investors to focus on non‑GAAP trajectory vs spend cadence and 2026 margin expansion potential .*
• Tactical: Near-term stock moves likely hinge on summer prescription trends, back‑to‑school inflection for Jornay PM, visibility on OpEx taper in H2, and additional capital return or BD signals .
• Medium‑term: Delivering >$135M Jornay revenue in 2025 while maintaining pain portfolio durability underpins the path to the FY25 guide and sets up multi‑year compounding with improving margins beyond 2025 .

Footnotes:

• Values retrieved from S&P Global.